Built on Claude · Crypto · Prediction markets

Know the real odds
before you trade.

ProbSense is an AI research copilot for crypto and prediction-market traders. It turns live market data, exchange order flow and market rules into fee-aware fair odds, plain-language risk warnings and honestly tested strategies.

Request early access

The problem

Retail traders on crypto exchanges and prediction markets (Kalshi, Polymarket) trade against professionals with better data and faster tools. Most lose not because they pick the wrong side, but because they overpay: fees, spreads, misread rules and late "sure-thing" entries quietly destroy their edge. Existing tools show prices — none tell you whether a price is actually worth paying.

What ProbSense does

Claude-powered agents read the market the way a professional research desk would — and explain it in plain language.

🩺

Trade health check

Paste any market or pair. Get fair probability, fee and spread impact, flip risk near expiry, historical base rates and a clear verdict: overpriced, fair or cheap.

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Cross-venue scanner

Compares the same event or asset across prediction markets and crypto exchanges in real time — prices, funding, basis and liquidity — and flags gaps that survive fees.

📜

Rule & resolution-risk detector

Two markets can look identical and settle differently. Claude reads the full rules, oracle and index definitions and warns when "the same bet" is not the same.

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Honest strategy lab

Describe a strategy in plain words. ProbSense builds and runs a fee-aware, no-look-ahead backtest with a true out-of-sample holdout — so you see what actually works, not curve-fit hype.

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Market pulse

Live digest of spot and perpetual order flow, open interest, liquidations and momentum across major exchanges, summarised into what matters for your open position.

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Guardrails & multilingual alerts

Real-time alerts in English and Turkish, plus protective rules ("this late favourite is overpriced") that help users avoid the most common losing trades.

How it works

Collect. Second-level market data from prediction markets and crypto exchanges, stored with exact timestamps for reproducible research.
Model. Probability models aligned with each venue's official settlement index, with fees and execution costs built in.
Reason. Claude agents use tools to read market rules, query data, write and run analysis code and cross-check results before anything reaches the user.
Explain. Results are delivered as plain-language verdicts and alerts on web and Telegram — no PhD in quant finance required.

Research foundation

ProbSense grew out of our own research infrastructure for short-horizon crypto markets.

6,400+15-minute BTC prediction markets analysed with fee-aware, out-of-sample testing
3data sources fused: prediction-market quotes, spot and perpetual exchange flow
1-secondlive collection pipeline for quotes, index prints and order books

Roadmap

Be among the first users

We are onboarding a small group of early traders.

founder@probsense.com